In betting the world cup there are three typical types of bets
1) Bet to win the world cup
2) Bet to win Groups A-H
3) Bet on individual games
Bet to win the World - This is where the house rakes. The board is full of sucker bets. They prey on casual bettors who don’t understand the format of the tournament. To win the WC a nation must finish in either 1st or 2nd place of a 4 team group. The top 2 of each of the 8 groups then advance to single elimination games until the final. Meaning once you advance out of your group, you must win 4 consecutive games to win the trophy.
REAL BAD BETS : Brazil 5-2, Spain 7-2 England 6-1 Argentina 5-1 Italy 7-1, etc… Not knocking any of these teams or saying they won’t win. However, if you like any of these teams to win to win the cup, all you need to do is wait until they advance out of the group stage and bet them four games in a row parlaying all the money you won from the previous game. For example, say you love England (Really??? Walcott out SWP in???) and you want to wager $100. If you bet Pre-tourney and Three Lions side hoisted the trophy on July 11, you would get $500 . However if you bet $100 in the first game after the group stage and parlayed the three subsequent games you would probably wind up with $1,000. In addition, you can stop at any time and take your winnings (in case of an injury or unexpected opponent) and you are bypassing the small risk them choking in the group stage. For the same reasons all the teams above are bad prop bets. Even underrated Netherlands at 10-1 and overrated France at 16-1 are bad bets. And Dude, USA at 16-1…… If you parlayed that @#$$# in the 4 knockout stage games you would make something like 50-1.
GREAT PRE WC BETS: Chile 85-1, Paraguay 80-1, Uruguay 160-1 Denmark 75-1, Cameroon 80-1 Switzerland 275-1 Nigeria 50-1 Ghana 85-1, etc…. You think I’m nuts right??? No these teams are NOT winning the World Cup but you can make tons of money off them. Here’s how. Take group H: Spain, Chile Switzerland and Honduras. Take my word for it Spain will finish first and Honduras last. That leaves Chile at 85-1 and Switzerland at 275-1 !!! as the other team that qualifies for the next round. Say you wager $100 on each of these two teams. If Chile qualifies (I personally think the Swiss are better) you have 4 in which you can wager up to $8,500 against them. True you will probably lay odds but you are guaranteed to make more than the $200 you laid out. If the Swiss qualify (I think the will) you have $27,500 to play with over 4 games. Again guaranteed money. In the case of Switzerland, if they advance you bet $600 against them in the first game. If the win you bet $1,200 against them and so on. They will either win in which case you get $27,500 or you will win one of the 4 games you bet against them. To recap you if you lay out $200 ($100 apiece on Chile and Switzerland), you will either have $8,500 or $27,500 to play with over the 4 four game span. Here are other opportunities:
Group A: Uruguay 160-1. They might win the group outright. The other 2 teams ranked above them France and Mexico are in horrible form and South Africa the host is an inferior team.
Group B: Nigeria 50-1 and Greece 100-1 South Korea 175-1. It is given that Argentina will advance. Greece were Euro champs in 2004 and Nigeria is one of the best of African teams with the best goalkeeper you never heard of Vincent Enyema. My Guess is that Nigeria will advance.
Group C Slovenia 210-1. Caveat. You have to root against the USA since it’s almost a given that England will advance from that group. Slovenia are no pushovers…Trust me.
Group D Serbia 45-1 and Ghana 85-1 Australia 125-1. On paper, Serbia should advance with Group D favorites Germany. Ghana best player, Chelsea midfielder Michael Essien will miss the WC due to injury and the African side will field a much younger and unproven team. Australia was the surprise in the 2006 WC and lost in the second round to eventual champions on a dubious penalty in injury time. I would stay away from this group since each of three teams have an equal chance of moving on.
Group E Cameroon 75-1 Denmark 80-1. Love these teams. Netherlands will probably finish first and Japan 500-1 are not in the same class. I would take them both. These teams can shock anybody in the knockout phases and they could even win the Group.
Group F Paraguay 80-1 Slovakia 600-1. Italy are front-runners in this group and one of these 2 teams will beat out New Zealand 400-1. The Slovaks are a no brainer. No it’s not Marian Hossa or Gaborik playing upfront, but any team that got in from the Euro groups can beat anybody. 600-1 means you have $60,000 you can play with over 4 games on a $100 bet.
Group G AKA the Group of Death. Throw out North Korea, three other teams are perineal favorites Brazil, Portugal (AKA Ronaldo’s Red Cheating Divers) at 20-1 and Ivory Coast (they changed their name) at 24-1……Stay away from any pre- tourney odds bet.
Group H. See Above. Chile 85-1 and Switzerland 275-1 (best bet of the tourney)
Group Stage
Group A: France, Mexico, Uruguay and South Africa
This Group is Wide open. France who is one of the most talented teams is in disarray and not in synch. If things go wrong early, Les E’quipe Tricolore might not survive the group stage. Mexico is always tough and never great but never an easy out. Uruguay is the dark horse in the group. Diego Forlan had a banner year leading Atletico Madrid to Europa League title. Host South Africa will harass but ultimately fall short in talent. I think Uruguay can shock the group and France will edge out Mexico for the second spot.
Prediction
1. Uruguay
2. France (barely)
3. Mexico
4. South Africa
Group B:
Argentina should win on paper ( Messi, Higauin, Malito, Tevez but look out for Nigeria. Despite losing Chelsea Midfielder John Obi Mikel to injury, this team can compete. They feature one the most colorful players in the world Goalie Vincent Enyema (who???) who is also superb net minder. Greece will try to bore its opponents to sleep and steal a goal here and there. South Korea will be a tough out
Prediction:
1 Argentina
2. Nigeria
3. Greece
4. South Korea
Group C:
This English side is one of the strongest og this generation. Fabio Cappelo if you are listening two words Jermaine Defoe, not Crouch not Heskey Rooney and Defoe are an unstoppable tandem. USA will challenge for the top spot and might get a result in the first game but will probably fall short of the top spot setting up a probable round of 16 match with Germany. Slovenia and Algeria are far from pushover but will probably fall short.
Prediction
1. England
2. USA
3 Slovenia
4. Algeria
Group D
This Group is wide open. Any of the 4 teams can qualify or go home. People are saying the Germans have a weak team….whatever. Ghana and Serbia or both young teams with tons of talent. The Aussies are better than most people think.
Prediction (I wouldn’t bet on this)
1. Serbia
2. Germany
3. Australia
4 Ghana
Group E
I love this group. You love goals you should watch these games. Netherlands are one of the most talented teams in the tourney. But every time you watch them mauls the opposition in 3 straight games and lose inexplicably to an inferior foe in the knockout stage. Denmark, 10 year removed from a European crown can play with anyone. Cameroon is one of the best African teams though Samuel Eto’o has been feuding with his coach. Japan…..sorry you’re in a tough group
Prediction:
1. Netherlands
2. Denmark
3. Cameroon
4. Japan
Group F
Italy. everybody compares them to the Celtics. The champs are old, slow, declining…… so was Rocky. Lookout for the Slovaks. No Marion Hossa but Marek Hamsek is a raising star. Paraguay’s Roque Santa Cruz should be well rested after riding the pine at Manchester City all year but consider the fact that they beat BOTH Argentina and Brazil in qualifying. New Zealand is probably the weakest team in the field.
Prediction
1. Paraguay
2 Italy
3 Slovakia
4. New Zealand
Group G
Oh the infamous Group of Death not because North Korea has nuclear weapons but because, Kaka, Ronaldo and Drogba will play head to head. Brazil who on paper have one of their weaker teams anyone can remember but are still tourney favorites….. Go figure. opening game between Portugal and Ivory Coast will be for all the marbles. If it ends up in a tie, they will compete on who can score more goals against North Korea.
Prediction
1. Brazil
2. Ivory Coast
3. Portugal
4. North Korea
Group H
Reigning European champions should have no problems winning the group. Chile and Switzerland will battle for the remaining birth to the round of 16 and the privilege of playing Brazil in the second round. Honduras can be pesky and can snatch a result from those 2 teams.
Prediction
1. Spain
2. Switzerland
3. Chile
4 Honduras
